China after the Congress


At the XIX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CNP) in October 2017 a new element was added to the party's Constitution: Xi's Thought in Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, making Xi the third Chinese leader to put his name in the country's main law.


The EMIS Foresight Report 2018 presents a comprehensive analysis of Xi's plans, aspirations and challenges for his second term as president of China.


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One thing we have learnt from China's history in the past few decades is that Chinese leaders never fail to deliver on their promises. When Xi Jinping took power in 2013, he was expected to speed up economic reform, but instead his first five years in office resulted in more public investment, limited reduction in overcapacity and more public debt. The first term was disappointing for many foreign observers, the question now is: What can we expect from his President Xi's second term?



Xi's Plans




  • The Belt and Road Initiative
  • A Top-Down goverment approach.
  • Bigger and stronger state enterprises.
  • Keep political control over Hong Kong and Macau.


Xi's Aspirations




  • Be the dominant power in a global economy.
  • Emphasise the central role of the CNP in China.
  • Make the renmibi a reserve currency in Asia.


Xi's Challenges




  • Faltering economical growth
  • Ageing population
  • Corporate debt
  • Real Estate market bubble


"China will be strengthening its political and economic relations worlwide, trying to challenge the us as a dominant power"
EMIS Editorial Team, EMIS Foresight Report 2018
"Xi is turning against one of the key engines of the country's successful transformation in the past 30 years - Decentralisation"
EMIS Editorial Team, EMIS Foresight Report 2018
"From a bottom-up perspective China actually does not look like an economy that is about to collapse."
EMIS Editorial Team, EMIS Foresight Report 2018